Germany Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
GERMANY

The Germany 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 2.256%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Germany 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 22.7 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Germany Central Bank Rate stands at 3.40%, following the most recent adjustment in October 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Germany credit rating is AAA.

The current quotation for Germany 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 11.74 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 0.20%.

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Germany Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Germany Yield Curve
Germany Government Bonds
24 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 2.800% +47.1 bp -83.8 bp -82.6 bp 99.77 -0.04 % +0.07 % +0.07 % 1.002 24 Nov
3 months 2.510% -32.6 bp -109.6 bp -116.6 bp 99.38 +0.08 % +0.26 % +0.28 % 1.006 24 Nov
6 months 2.598% -17.8 bp -99.2 bp -115.5 bp 98.73 +0.09 % +0.49 % +0.57 % 1.012 24 Nov
9 months 2.372% -12.9 bp -113.8 bp -129.3 bp 98.26 +0.10 % +0.83 % +0.95 % 1.017 24 Nov
1 year 2.281% -8.5 bp -117.4 bp -132.1 bp 97.77 +0.08 % +1.15 % +1.30 % 1.022 24 Nov
2 years 2.029% -9.3 bp -105.6 bp -103.7 bp 96.06 +0.18 % +2.08 % +2.04 % 1.040 24 Nov
3 years 1.969% +0.3 bp -88.9 bp -105.0 bp 94.32 -0.01 % +2.64 % +3.13 % 1.060 24 Nov
4 years 1.961% +1.5 bp -73.6 bp -76.6 bp 92.53 -0.05 % +2.93 % +3.04 % 1.080 24 Nov
5 years 2.079% -0.7 bp -56.3 bp -52.5 bp 90.22 +0.03 % +2.78 % +2.59 % 1.108 24 Nov
6 years 2.006% -2.3 bp -54.9 bp -52.6 bp 88.77 +0.14 % +3.28 % +3.14 % 1.126 24 Nov
7 years 2.116% -0.2 bp -40.8 bp -46.0 bp 86.37 +0.02 % +2.83 % +3.20 % 1.157 24 Nov
8 years 2.142% +3.5 bp -38.0 bp -39.8 bp 84.40 -0.28 % +3.01 % +3.15 % 1.184 24 Nov
9 years 2.205% +2.9 bp -34.3 bp -34.8 bp 82.18 -0.25 % +3.06 % +3.11 % 1.216 24 Nov
10 years 2.256% -1.4 bp -32.6 bp -37.4 bp 80.00 +0.14 % +3.23 % +3.71 % 1.249 24 Nov
15 years 2.505% -5.6 bp -25.2 bp -31.0 bp 69.00 +0.83 % +3.76 % +4.64 % 1.449 24 Nov
20 years 2.496% -8.2 bp -25.2 bp -36.4 bp 61.07 +1.60 % +5.02 % +7.35 % 1.637 24 Nov
25 years 2.487% -8.9 bp -24.5 bp -34.1 bp 54.11 +2.19 % +6.16 % +8.65 % 1.848 24 Nov
30 years 2.502% -7.8 bp -18.6 bp -30.4 bp 47.65 +2.32 % +5.61 % +9.29 % 2.098 24 Nov
Last Update: 24 Nov 2024, 21:23 GMT+0

Germany Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 2.800 2.510 2.598 2.281 2.029 1.969 2.079 2.116 2.256 2.502 22.7
Dec 2023 3.652 3.595 3.606 3.194 2.402 2.324 1.949 1.941 2.031 2.279 -37.1
Dec 2022 n.a. 1.871 2.085 2.559 2.737 2.584 2.565 2.540 2.565 2.455 -17.3
Dec 2021 n.a. -0.767 -0.705 -0.650 -0.642 -0.665 -0.455 -0.358 -0.182 0.192 46.1
Dec 2020 n.a. -0.794 -0.759 -0.736 -0.713 -0.772 -0.746 -0.696 -0.576 -0.171 13.7
Dec 2019 n.a. -0.730 -0.650 -0.656 -0.617 -0.575 -0.473 -0.357 -0.188 0.340 42.9
Dec 2018 n.a. -0.845 -0.785 -0.604 -0.590 -0.552 -0.269 -0.047 0.246 0.877 83.6
Dec 2017 -0.993 -0.803 -0.840 -0.716 -0.632 -0.497 -0.207 0.029 0.426 1.265 105.8
Dec 2016 -1.542 -0.930 -0.827 -0.845 -0.782 -0.754 -0.536 -0.210 0.207 0.939 98.9
Dec 2015 -0.570 -0.604 -0.329 -0.367 -0.342 -0.273 -0.042 0.245 0.635 1.495 97.7
Dec 2014 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.541 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2013 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.941 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2012 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.306 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2011 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.816 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.949 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.388 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2008 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.949 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2007 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.368 n.a. n.a.

Germany Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -25.2 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 5.0 bp Yield Curve is flat in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 22.7 bp Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (3.40%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 2.502% -89.8bp
10 years 2.256%
-114.4bp
5 years 2.079%
-132.1bp
2 years 2.029%
-137.1bp
1 year 2.281%
-111.9bp
3 months 2.510%
-89.0bp

Germany Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's AAA - 13 Jan 2012 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Aaa - 28 Feb 2014 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings AAA - 10 Aug 1994
DBRS AAA - 16 Jun 2011

Germany Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 3.40%

Germany Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 11.74 +13.39 % +21.81 % -35.75 % 0.20 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Germany 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Germany 10Y Government Bond has a 2.256% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Germany 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 118.2 bp -14.3 bp -40.3 bp -67.6 bp
vs China 10Y 17.6 bp +5.7 bp -8.3 bp +26.9 bp
vs Spain 10Y -75.1 bp -6.0 bp +0.2 bp +23.5 bp
vs France 10Y -80.4 bp -8.0 bp -31.5 bp -24.0 bp
vs Canada 10Y -116.9 bp -17.1 bp -11.7 bp -4.6 bp
vs Italy 10Y -125.5 bp -5.6 bp +5.3 bp +50.7 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y -213.4 bp -17.5 bp -45.7 bp -48.3 bp
vs United States 10Y -215.5 bp -22.1 bp -27.7 bp -31.3 bp
vs Australia 10Y -231.3 bp -8.7 bp -54.5 bp -39.9 bp
vs India 10Y -459.4 bp +7.1 bp -17.8 bp +4.8 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -1062.4 bp -4.4 bp -156.4 bp -215.5 bp
vs Russia 10Y -1390.2 bp -0.3 bp -193.4 bp -449.7 bp

Germany Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 2.502% 47.65 68.57 110.42 152.27 194.12 235.97
25 years 2.487% 54.11 72.56 109.47 146.37 183.27 220.18
20 years 2.496% 61.07 76.67 107.86 139.05 170.24 201.43
15 years 2.505% 69.00 81.37 106.13 130.88 155.63 180.39
10 years 2.256% 80.00 88.87 106.59 124.32 142.05 159.78
9 years 2.205% 82.18 90.26 106.43 122.59 138.76 154.92
8 years 2.142% 84.40 91.69 106.25 120.81 135.37 149.93
7 years 2.116% 86.37 92.81 105.70 118.58 131.47 144.36
6 years 2.006% 88.77 94.37 105.57 116.77 127.97 139.17
5 years 2.079% 90.22 94.93 104.33 113.74 123.14 132.55
4 years 1.961% 92.53 96.34 103.96 111.58 119.21 126.83
3 years 1.969% 94.32 97.20 102.98 108.75 114.52 120.29
2 years 2.029% 96.06 98.00 101.88 105.77 109.65 113.53
1 year 2.281% 97.77 98.75 100.70 102.66 104.61 106.57
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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